Former President of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Cypriot Engineers and Architects (KTMMOB), Tunç Adanır, has drawn attention to the warnings made by scientists and experts that a magnitude 7 earthquake* is expected in Cyprus, Yeniduzen reported.
Adanır questioned, “While scientists are warning that a magnitude 7 earthquake is expected in Cyprus, and we experience tremors almost daily as a precursor to this, why can’t we bring this issue to the forefront?” Drawing attention to the risk of soil liquefaction in areas like Iskele and Lefke during such an earthquake, Adanır criticised the government and authorities for delaying the Lefke Development Plan.
Adanır’s statement, shared via social media, reads:
“Excuse me… I’d love to interrupt your agenda of ‘Parliamentary Speaker, early elections, I’ll give you three letters, you give me five, and who had how many lattes where’ with something sweet like ‘honey.’ But instead, I’m interrupting with a subject you’ll avoid talking about again!
“Maybe it’s my profession, or perhaps it’s the lasting pain of losses that never truly heal, but I closely follow the daily earthquakes around the island. I know I’m not alone. What I don’t know—what I can’t understand—is why we don’t talk about this or why we can’t talk about it!
“Scientists and experts keep warning of a magnitude 7 earthquake in Cyprus. We experience daily tremors that signal this possibility (today alone, there were six quakes between magnitudes 3 and 4). It’s been loudly and clearly pointed out that soil liquefaction will occur in areas like İskele and Lefke during such an event. So why aren’t we talking about it?
“Why is the Cabinet delaying the publication of the Lefke Development Plan? Because they’re waiting for Environmental Impact Assessments (EIAs) for over 15 projects featuring buildings with 20 or more floors!
“I’m not even talking about clichéd issues like infrastructure, waste treatment, or electricity supply anymore! What’s happening? In the İskele area, 800 tons of untreated waste is dumped on empty land every day. The same will happen in Lefke too! Easily, casually, carelessly! Right in front of our faces!
“But the issue I’m highlighting is far bigger, far more devastating!
“Do we care? No, we don’t!”
*The likelihood of a magnitude 7 earthquake in North Cyprus is lower than in southern parts of the island but still possible. North Cyprus is part of the same tectonic system, influenced by the complex interactions between the African, Eurasian, and Anatolian plates. However, the seismic activity tends to be less intense compared to the southern coast.
Key Factors for North Cyprus:
Seismic Zones:
The Kyrenia Range and the northern coastline have moderate seismic activity. These areas are influenced by smaller fault systems but are not as close to the primary plate boundary as the southern regions.
Areas like Famagusta, Iskele, and Lefke may still experience moderate to strong shaking during large regional earthquakes due to soil conditions and proximity to active zones.
Historical Earthquakes:
North Cyprus has not experienced a recorded earthquake close to magnitude 7 in modern history. Most significant quakes have been between magnitudes 4 and 6. However, geological evidence suggests that larger earthquakes may have occurred in the distant past.
Soil Liquefaction Risks:
In certain regions, such as Iskele and Lefke, the risk of soil liquefaction during a strong earthquake is significant. This can amplify damage even if the earthquake’s epicentre is far away.
Proximity to Major Faults:
The primary seismic risks for North Cyprus come from:
The Cyprus Arc: A subduction zone south of the island, which is the main source of larger earthquakes in the region.
Local Fault Systems: Smaller fault lines in and around Cyprus, though less likely to generate magnitude 7 earthquakes, could still trigger significant seismic activity.
Current Assessment:
While a magnitude 7 earthquake originating directly in North Cyprus is unlikely due to the nature of local fault systems, tremors from larger regional quakes (e.g., those originating along the Cyprus Arc) could still impact the area severely. Liquefaction risks, older building stock, and inadequate infrastructure in some areas amplify vulnerability.
Preparedness in North Cyprus:
Given the lower frequency but potentially high impact of seismic events:
Ensuring that buildings meet earthquake-resistant standards is vital.
Addressing known risks, such as soil liquefaction zones in Iskele and Lefke, should be prioritised.
Public awareness and emergency planning, including evacuation routes and drills, can significantly reduce potential casualties and damage.
While a magnitude 7 earthquake might not be an immediate concern, proactive measures are crucial given the unpredictable nature of seismic events. [LGC News Ed.]
